Statistics show that by the end of 2017, the cumulative sales of new energy vehicles in the world had reached nearly 4 million, accounting for 0.3% of the global car ownership. Among them, the cumulative sales of new energy vehicles in China exceeded 1.6 million, accounting for 42% of the global total.
Another set of data shows that domestic production and sales of new energy vehicles increased from less than 10,000 in 2011 to nearly 800,000 in 2017, with a compound annual growth rate of more than 100%. Benefiting from the rapid growth of sales in the new energy vehicle industry, the shipments of power batteries are rising steadily, and the proportion of lithium battery applications is rising rapidly. So, what is the future development of power batteries?
The main demand for power batteries lies in the electrification of vehicles
In 2017, the global sales of new energy vehicles exceeded 1.223 million, an increase of 58% over 2016. It can be seen that the trend of vehicle electrification has become clear, and the main source of power battery demand is vehicle electrification.
In 2017, the total global shipments of lithium batteries reached 148.1GWh, of which the total shipments of power batteries reached 62.35GWh. In addition, since 2014, the compound annual growth rate of power batteries has reached 80%, while the compound growth rate of traditional consumer batteries is only 7%. The new demand in the lithium battery industry will be dominated by power batteries.
The cost of power batteries is a key driver of vehicle electrification
At present, in terms of performance, due to the low energy density of power batteries and the limited fast charging capability, the cruising range and charging experience of new energy vehicles are still inferior to those of fuel vehicles. Anxiety" has greatly eased.
In terms of cost, due to the high cost of power batteries, the purchase cost of new energy vehicles is still higher than that of fuel vehicles, but the use cost of new energy vehicles is lower, so the advantages of both parties depend on the annual driving distance and the oil price/electricity price ratio.
The data shows that the cost of power batteries has a very significant impact on the TCO (total cost of ownership) and purchase price of new energy vehicles. With other factors unchanged, when the price of power batteries drops to 900-1000 yuan/kWh At the same time, the TCO of new energy vehicles is basically the same as that of fuel vehicles, and the enthusiasm of consumers to purchase new energy vehicles will be strengthened. When the cost of power batteries further drops to 700 yuan/kWh and below, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles will enter a stage of accelerated improvement.
Subsidy policies also help
In 2009, my country issued the "Notice on Carrying out the Pilot Work of Demonstration and Promotion of Energy-Saving and New Energy Vehicles", which clearly provides subsidies for the purchase of new energy vehicles in the public service areas of pilot cities. This also marks the official arrival of the subsidy era for new energy vehicles in the public sector. At that time, a pure electric vehicle could get a maximum of 60,000 yuan/vehicle of the state subsidy fund, and the plug-in hybrid (the default is 40% fuel saving rate) can generally get 50,000 yuan/vehicle of the state subsidy fund. The subsidy for pure electric buses is as high as 500,000 yuan per vehicle.
Stimulated by strong subsidies, the scale of production and sales of new energy vehicles in my country has been rising steadily. In 2015, the sales of new energy vehicles in China reached 330,000, which accounted for more than 1% of the sales of new vehicles for the first time. sales accounted for more than 50%.
In 2017, the sales of new energy vehicles in my country reached 2.6% of the total sales of vehicles, and the proportion was as high as 2.84% in the first seven months of 2018. The penetration rate of new energy vehicles in China has been at the forefront of the world.
Affected by this, the compound annual growth rate of power batteries from 2018 to 2030 will reach 29%, and the demand for the power battery industry will show extremely high growth in the next ten years.
The latest data shows that the number of power battery companies in my country will drop from 150 in 2015 to 100 in 2017. Under the Matthew effect of the strong, it is expected that by 2020, there will be only 20 to 30 power battery companies. In my country's power battery industry, CATL and BYD have occupied half of the industry and are the first echelon of the power battery industry, and their market share is expected to continue to expand in the future.
Therefore, other companies in power batteries will now face the embarrassing situation of being merged or marginalized. Other small and medium-sized enterprises are facing a series of difficulties such as low-end product positioning, fierce price competition, high accounts receivable, and serious shortage of capacity utilization. It seems that the transformation of small and medium-sized enterprises is an urgent matter.
